Market Update

I'm not feeling rushed at the moment as far as asset entries, although I do need to put in some time going through the entire watchlist as some assets are going to look better earlier than others, for instance, Transports needs to be filled out and that's one I want to take a closer look at re: whether this is the time to do it or not from a slightly myopic perspective (meaning as a longer term position trade, I'm probably being a bit too myopic about timing as there's a balance between getting the right timing and missing the big picture timing altogether because you're too focussed on the intraday trade when red lights are flashing all round you).



As far as the market's reaction to the ECB, it seems to me the market had already priced in the ABS, the rate cut was a bit of a surprise, but there's no big knee jerk moves here, I think once the ECB hired Blackrock to run a "Potential" ABS program, the market pretty much knew that's what was coming and had it priced in.

As far as intraday trade goes, there's nothing that's very surprising or even that interesting at this point, but I'll show you what we have, however I suspect some of the finer points will be in the watchlist components and some odd-ball indications like credit that few people look at. The balance between the big picture and timing is something I want to re-evaluate as well. Today's price action does nothing to void some of those bearish engulfing candles from yesterday, the Q's being the best example.

For the charts...

Shorts are not helping at least the short squeeze isn't which is a strange change after being use to seeing short squeezes run for weeks, not they can't hold until the European close, or really barely after the open. In fact....

 MSI in yellow vs SPX didn't even keep up with the broad market and over a longer period...

The short squeeze candidates are underperforming the market rather than being squeezed to help pump the market, another example of the very few levers left or effective levers left.

This QQQ intraday negative divergence isn't surprising at all if you are watching the NYSE intraday TICK which I have below.

The continued leading negative trend in the 2 min chart (timing at this point) is part of what's causing me to really think about the big picture vs how closely we want to try to shave this top. Just as a matter of concept, the head fake move is a probability, but they are convincing moves and there's little in this market that has been convincing. I think a "Blow-off top" and a head fake move are often one and the same, but there isn't always a blow-off top/head fake move at a top like 2007 for instance.

This 3 min QQQ deteriorating is expected considering the chart above, however I just have a feeling these will be near vertical leading negative divgerences at the exact pivot.

The IWM isn't showing anything of interest intraday other than it seems to have a little better underlying relative strength on an intraday basis.

The 2 min trend is confirmation of the Q's above, the same trend and leading negative divergence as the broad market has transitioned from stage 2 mark up to a clear lateral trend in almost all cases.

No surprises at all from the SPY which is inline, but if you look at the TICK, this downturn was coming...

 TICK intraday today trending down so the market was bound to lose momentum with more stocks moving down nearly every minute than up.

And that's reflected here as well.

HYG is interesting, either it's going to create something a bit bigger as a base or this divergence failed and someone wasted some money, I'm sure that will sort out sometime today.

Again, as far as exact pivots, I don't feel the pressure of it right on top of us, but looking from a daily chart, then I start to feel the pressure as mentioned above.