Thursday, September 4, 2014

AAPL Trade Set-Up Update

Yesterday I posted a couple things to look for in AAPL to set up a short term call/options trade or long AAPL, but I personally don't think the long equity is worth it without leverage so I prefer an AAPL weekly call (at least next Friday's expiration),  I don't think it is there yet and still has some to prove, but is on the right track.

From yesterday's post, AAPL Update & Trade Set-Up with NDX Implications...

Remember this is a short term possible long position (calls_, but there's also a longer term short component...

 Yesterday as the first signs of very short term accumulation developed, the first thing I wanted to see was a pullback below yesterday's intraday lows which we have this morning, this is almost the ideal area for a call purchase, but I don't think AAPL has a wide enough base area to launch a successful move yet. Note the leading divegrence is stronger after that dip to run stops this morning.

The faster intraday 1 min chart shows the bounce off this morning's lows seems to be turning back to the down side which is fine as we have no position here yet. This gives AAPL another opportunity to increase the size of the base and us another opportunity to verify that accumulation continues and a move up is likely rather than just a lateral consolidation. Ideally for a call entry, I'd like to see another lower low with a positive divegrence, however it may take on the form of an inverse H&S and pullback to about the red trendline below, I'm setting price alerts for both scenarios.

This is a longer 10 min chart and there's the red trendline possible pullback area, although for a call entry I'd prefer to see a deeper pullback as long as we can confirm positive signals on the pullback like this morning.

This 10 min chart though is in horrible shape so it's a reminder to be careful, this call trade would be speculative and the larger trade is still AAPL short on price strength.

I'll let you know once alerts are triggered if it looks promising, but so far so good.

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