Thursday, September 4, 2014

SCTY Update and market implications

This is not only an update for an open position, but a trade set up from last Thursday as well, SCTY Trade Set-Up and part of what I get from watchlists (PCLN, AAPL, SCTY, etc.) that are telling me they want to make that break higher which sets up the entry we are looking for , especially in this particular case, which tells me something about where we are as far as timing in the market, like I said in the last market update, "I don't feel that pressure of having to make immediate moves on an intraday basis, but when looking at daily charts, it feels a little too close for comfort.

I'll leave the longer term charts and set up in SCTY to the last post as nothing important there has changed, SCTY Trade Set-Up . However, what we were looking for in SCTY as a trade set up has changed and is doing what we were looking for. From the linked post from last week,

"The sym. triangle drawn in above is considered by Technical traders to be a consolidation/continuation pattern and the preceding trend was down so they'll expect a move below the triangle ...this can give SCTY a little boost by creating a bear trap, causing shorts to cover and getting its upside move started."



These technical price patterns get shaken out and head faked all of the time. Just as I said above, technical traders expect a break below so they'll short it when it comes which gives SCTY the fuel it needs to make a break to the upside on a short squeeze, even though if you look at the longer term charts, this is just a god entry, not any game changer for SCTY's very bearish position. By the way, the move up is near 5 % today and well above the area where we first started seeing positive divegrenvces forming on the 28th last week as this is a concept I just covered in Low Risk, High Probability Trade Set-Ups Using 3C...

"price will almost always surpass the area you first saw the divegrence once there's a reversal "

I was demonstrating that with a TLT chart in that post, but here you see the same concept at work as price has surpassed the level where we first started to se positive divergences on the 28th.

And from last week's SCTY Trade Set-Up

"I like SCTY in this general area for a longer term position, but if we can get a better, more timely entry with less risk, why not?

The bottom line is I'd be setting some price alerts on the upside if you are interested in SCTY short or adding to an existing position, I gave a target or two, you may find some others you like. Also keep an eye on the broad market as this will likely turn at the same time as the broad market."

So that process is underway and the set-up is forming.

 This is a 10 min leading positive divegrence in SCTY, right around the 28th forward, the head fake move below the triangle set up the bear trap that gives SCTY momentum for a move like today's +5%.

This 3 min chart tells me SCTY is still in line, it still has some gas in the tank. When this chart and the 10 min chart turn and start moving negative, I have the SCTY Trade-Set-up entry I'm looking for.

I suspect this will happen around the same time as the broad market, after all it would be difficult for SCTY to finish it's move with the market in free fall. It's not SCTY alone as a barometer of this timing, it's the watchlist stocks and the trend among them.

In any case, if you like SCTY like I do, keep this one on your radar, look for price to start to turn lateral from today's move up.





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