Thursday, September 4, 2014

Time to go long European bed matresses

In what the market has taken as a shocking policy move, although really it's just conventional policy and one of 3 probabilities laid out here yesterday, the European Central Bank has just cut all 3 rates across the board by 10 basis points.

The Interest rate is cut by 10 bps to 0.05%, the interest rate on the Marginal Lending facility is cut by 10 bps to 0.30% and the Deposit interest rate is cut another 10 bps to bring it to a negative .20%, in other words, depositors in Europe are paying +.20% to keep money in the bank, thus the rec'd to go long European bed mattresses.

All rates will begin as of September 10th.

The EUR/USD has lost about 120 pips with the Euro down and USD up, gold was down a bit , crude pared some, and the Index futures as well as bonds are zig-zagging, here's ES's reaction, first up and then it took back all the gains after the announcement.

 Overnight action very flat and a run up in to the policy statement (not press conference yet)...

 Here's the policy statement for ES and the initial jerk up and all gains taken back.

The EUR/USD has a VERY slight bounce.

USD/JPY ran up and then gave back quite a bit...
USD/JPY retracing all post policy gains...

However, get ready for more volatility as Draghi speaks at the press conference where ABS/QE may still be announced.

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