Friday, January 2, 2015

Leading Indicators Are Confirming

I just did a quick run through Leading Indicators and they are confirming the probable 1-day oversold bounce theory from Wednesday. I believe the EUR/USD will lead. I don't think this is anything more than the "jiggles" in the market, trying to shakeout traders as the market is a zero sum game, for Wall St. to make money, they need someone to lose. I still view any bounce as an opportunity to set up short positions you may like, I posted several charts of 3x leveraged inverse ETFs earlier.

As for leading indicators, both VXX and more so, spot VIX are under performing, but more so in the afternoon around the area of where we are seeing a "W" type base in most of the averages.

TLT is also lagging in the afternoon which is causing 30 year yields to lead the market ever so slightly, nothing I'd be concerned about at all, more an intraday event, although it's getting late in the day.

HYG was leading as far as relative performance, but get this, just as the base area, since it has fallen off so it was almost as if it was brought in as a lever to stabilize the market, to build a more stable intraday base and then it was sold again, I'd say another sign this is meant to be a short term oversold bounce.

The other credit assets I follow are split, one is down, one is leading positive and one is in line. It remains the professional sentiment indicators near term that have been the strongest signal since late Wednesday, I use two for confirmation and both are leading, although these are nimble and can and will flip on a dime when they are ready to get out, for now, it looks like they are expecting a bounce which again fits with the 1-day oversold conditions apparent at the close Wednesday.

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