Friday, January 2, 2015

Perhaps this is the reason for EUR/USD and thus a market corrective move...

I already showed you the intraday transition from Index futures being tightlly correlated with USD/JPY earlier today and since we first saw the initial hint of a positive divergence in the market and I said that it would need to create a broader base if it were to move any more than a few tenths of a percent and an hour, it has done so.

Other than the market knowing the Goldman Sachs alumni who currently runs the European Central Bank, former Goldmanite Mario Draghi, being all words and no action, thus the half life of Draghi inspired market move is down to hours rather than days or weeks, there may be a second reason for EUR/USD to rally and take Index futures with it...

After Draghi's second blast of hot air this week which is full of plausible deniability, while hinting that QE is imminent and Reuters glad to act as the ECB's cheerleader much as the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath filling the same spot for the F_E_D and take an ambiguous statement and act like it is a fact against all odds, it may have just been Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary floor leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, told Deutschlandfunk radio on Friday: "We shouldn't pump extra money into these states, but rather make sure they continue along the reform path." Fuchs further added, "I'd be grateful if (ECB President Mario) Mr Draghi would make statements along these lines."

That's a German Smack-down retort to Draghi's earlier comments because even though their are few alive who lived through it, Germans still remember how effective QE was from the Weimar Republic days and that's not a story with a happy centrally planned ending.

While the Index futures/major averages are off their lows and seemingly starting the corrective oversold move from Wednesday's Daily Wrap forecast, the EUR/USD is still in base, but with 5 min Euro and $USD charts looking like this, I don't think for long.

This is still a sell in to strength opportunity.
 5 min Euro futures positive divergence...

5 min $USDX negative divergence, that should= EUR/USD HIGHER

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