Friday, January 2, 2015

Market Bounce is Looking More Probable

Not only in the major averages, but the Index futures. Interestingly the $USD is looking bad, but I think the correlation between currencies has changed, the USD/JPY was the earlier correlation and now it looks like the EUR/USD which I think will also be seeing upside briefly on $USD weakness and some Euro strength building. The Yen short term is in line.

 This is ES/SPX futures.

 NQ 1 min

TF 1 min

The $USD 1 min chart looks like it's about to see a nose dive and the Yen 1 min is in line so the USD/JPY wouldn't make sense as the pair correlated to the market on a bounce, however by now the Draghi jawboning half-life has probably expired (that which sent the Euro down overnight and this morning).

 USD/JPY was well correlated to ES above earlier, but something has changed.

EUR/USD has something USD/JPY does not, a positive divegrence, even though short term on a 1 min chart.

This is the EUR/USD vs Es/SPX futures, I'm not saying the correlation was good earlier, I think it is swapping out though now.

Here's TF/Russell 2000 futures vs EUR/USD. the correlation is much better. I suspect both are going to bounce as was my expectation Wednesday on a 1-day oversold basis from Wednesday.

Note the Single currency Euro futures with a positive divegrence that has been building as I showed this earlier today.

And even more impressive on a 5 min chart while the $USD 5 min chart...
looks horrible.

I'd guess we are close to a EUR/USD bounce and the market averages will likely correlate with the pair and bounce as well shortly.

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