AAPL Update & Market TIMING Proxy

Our original 4/2 market forecast which has been pretty darn accurate was made using all of the information I could gather which included going through numerous watchlist stocks and noticing a common theme, that's when I posted the forecast/update and since I had seen enough as I had looked at the AAPL chart and because it was the easiest, cleanest chart to use a proxy for the broad market, that's what I used.

As you know from Friday, I suspected AAPL was going to use a Crazy Ivan shakeout for (head fake) slingshot momentum to the upside, but this wasn't the first call for a move higher in AAPL based on its triangle, the original 4/2 post also called for it and last week's AAPL Finally Looks To be Making a Move called for the same, so I'm happy to see the move whether you played it for a piggy back (short term long trade) or are just interested in it as a short or market proxy like I am. AAPL charts look to be fantastic market timing indications which is important in picking the best pivot without the kind of chop you would have seen last Friday through today.

A Crazy Ivan Shakeout like this one embodies everything, all of the reasons head fake trades exist, why they work, what the psychology is, what the probabilities are and how you use them to your advantage (all in the "Understanding the head fake move" articles (2) that are always linked at the upper right side of the site.

This was a suspected Crazy Ivan shakeout, today it looks to be a confirmed on, thus as both a trade idea and a broad market proxy for timing, it's of great interest to me.

 First, the long term highest probabilities...

 4 hour AAPL deeply leading negative right at this triangle.

The 10 min chart shows the right side or Apex of the triangle, the head fake/ Crazy Ivan shakeout and accumulation of that move Friday...

So now we look at the charts, whether there's distribution in to higher prices as always expected or not and at what pace if so. This is the concept of "Migration" or the strengthening of a divergence.

 intraday 1min AAPL shows a negative divegrence building.

 It has already hit the 2 min chart, in a rounding type price action.

We already have signs of it on the 3 min chart as well so there is a negative divegrence building/migrating across longer timeframes in AAPL. If I zoom out you can see the positive Crazy Ivan divergence, but you'll see it below, I'm trying to focus on the migration of today's negative divegrence.

This 5 min chart shows the positive divegrence as the Crazy Ivan allowed smart money/specialists/market makers/etc. to pick up AAPL on the cheap and in supply on the head fake/stop run or Crazy Ivan shakeout, thus the divergence.

From a practical point of view, I'd say when AAPL's 5 min and 10 min chart are showing decent negative divergence as this process keeps moving to longer charts, the timing for the overall broad market will be there, not only for today's gap fill move, but on a larger basis as AAPL was one of the disappointments and I thought maybe my analysis was wrong being it HAD NOT broken out, but now it has done what I was looking for, it looks to be an excellent timing indication for the broad market which will include MOST stocks as well.