USO Update

USO calls that are counter to the large 2015 base, are hard for me to make because we were the earlier to recognize a change in USO, the earliest as far as mainstream media to say it looked like a base, but not a base that was finished while others were calling it a base about 2 months ago and it has great longer term signals, great overall base signals and off price action alone, looks like it's ready for a base/upside breakout, not a false break used to trap longs and push prices back to the lower end to make the base larger/stronger, but based on price alone it looks like it is just waiting to gather enough steam to breakout and

I'm a huge fan of that eventual move.

 This is the "W" base in USO, it even has a head fake move at the second low of the "W" or Double Bottom, which is why I say that from a price based perspective alone, it looks near ready to go.

However a closer look at the Daily candlesticks from the last resistance level and this tag of resistance shows the same long upper wicks indicating higher prices are being rejected as volume falls off as well.

It's more the 3C charts though that make me thing a swing pullback which could be near 20% is probable as you see with this 15 min USO negative divegrence between the same two areas seen on the chart above this one.

 The 10 min negative from the most recent swing up to resistance and a relative (weaker) and then leading (stronger) negative divegrence.

The shorter charts like 3 and 5 mins above show the same negative in the area of resistance.

As does the trend of this 1 min with accumulation and distribution on a very short term basis, thus  for now I'll stick with USO. A break to pull in new longs and trap them wouldn't be unusual, if I were the crook moving oil prices, that's what I'd do, after all a failed breakout is a fast reversal.