Monday, April 20, 2015

A.m. Brief

Good morning, I hope you all had a great weekend and thank you so much for the many kind emails, they mean a lot to us.

Friday's daily wrap ended with,

"Interestingly for next week , especially the early part, Today's Dominant P/V RElationship was SUPER Dominant across the board: 27 Dow stocks, 91 NASDAQ 100, 1141 Russell 2000 and 327 SPX 500, ALL CLOSE DOWN/VOLUME UP.

This is obviously a very bearish relationship, but it's also a strong 1-day oversold relationship and most commonly we see a short term oversold bounce the next day or so.

Of the 9 S&P sectors, ALL NINE WERE RED. Utilities were the best performer at -0.36% and Consumer Discretionary lagged at -1.48%.Of the 238 Morningstar groups, 226 were red.

Only 11 Dow stocks remain above their 50-day moving average, only 1010 (almost half) of the Russell 2000 are above their 50-day.

Overall, the market is at a deep 1-day oversold point so our forward looking analysis for early next week doesn't look so far off, a 1-day oversold bounce and INCREASED VOLATILITY sounds very reasonable here, that should be an excellent entry for positions, options/puts, etc."


So perhaps it is not surprising that futures are starting the week on the front foot.

However, after seeing Chinese futures down as much as 6% on Friday, it sort of feels like the PBOC panicked with the biggest RRR cut since 2008. The PBOC cut the RRR buy 100 basis points to 18.5 %.

As a result the Shanghai composite was only down-1.64% at the Hang Seng down -2.02% rather than some 5 to 6% as futures we're reflecting Friday.

Regulators also came out and tried to minimize some of the impact from decisions and comments on Friday regarding short selling and the actions taken against umbrella trusts,
it truly feels like somebody got a tap on the shoulder!

Still the market is in the deep one day oversold condition and it bounced today makes perfect sense we will see what it is made of shortly as the Greek exit concerns continue to loom.

I'll see you in a bit.

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