Quick TLT Update

TLT has done a lot of work building a nice looking reversal process today, it's very close to the $USDX trend interestingly as it has been recently.

If I were filling out the second part of TLT as planned in advance with TLT long or TBT short, I'd have little issue with doing it here.

As it is though, I'd like to use the June 19 calls so I'm looking for one last thing that we see about 80% of the time before a reversal, a head fake move and in this case it would be a stop run. I may miss filling out the position, but for options, this gives you a nice discount, lower risk and the best timing we can get from price based signals. I'm setting price alerts for any such move. I always confirm head fake moves to be sure any stops that are run, are accumulated.

How deep a head fake move goes depends on how many stops are in play and at what levels as they are easy to accumulate without raising any eyebrows.

I'm looking for something along the lines of...

TLT has put in a nice reversal process (yellow arrow) as reversals are more often a process than a "V" shaped event. The green arrow to the far right represents a break of support hitting stops just below. Since we are close, I'd consider psychological magnetic levels like $118.50 or more likely, $118. I see there's a pretty fair amount of traders looking for a contrarian trade in TLT, thus the typical head fake that we normally see 80% of the time anyway makes even more sense here. You can probably work out why these head fake moves are seen so often just before a reversal. 

In any case, that's what I'm looking for and am setting price alerts for before entering option positions. Again, if it were TLT long or 2x leverage, it wouldn't be that much of a concern and riding out that kind of head fake would be simple and not have any adverse consequences.