TLT Trade Idea

The Treasury counter trend rally/TLT long Idea was from last week and there's a pretty good explanation of the trade idea from the original post here, Trade Idea: Long Bonds / TLT. There were also these follow up posts, Bond Rally / Swing , TLT/Treasuries Counter Trend Rally Follow Up and Treasuries/TLT Update...

However, the first post should be an adequate explanation of what I was looking for, why it was only a half size position at the time and what would need to happen to make it a full size position.

This is a counter trend rally play on the decline in bonds, a short squeeze, but these can be very powerful moves.

I was looking for a pullback and wider base with positive signals before entering the second half of TLT long...

 The white box to the left was the initial half size entry as I suspected we'd see a pullback to form a larger base. The condition for the second half of the trade was a pullback to the recent lows on the 6th or below those (head fake/stop run shakeout), but they needed to show positive divergences through the pullback.

The short squeeze , which is a very thick presence, should start when the highs of the 8th are surpassed and we are back above the long term trendily.

 Something like this on a daily chart, although a counter trend rally can look very convincing, either through momentum or the highs it hits. IT is meant to cause bond traders to question the preceding downtrend.

However, this is a counter trend move, not a return to the gold old days of last year when bonds outperformed even equities on the year.

 This 60 min 3C chart of TLT shows perfect confirmation of the down trend, it will re-establish which  will set up another/new trade for us.

 However at the 30 min chart we have a significant divergence telling me this will be a strong counter trend rally.

 15 min showing the positive signals I was looking for in a probable pullback.

 The 5 min chart which is what caught my attention as it jumps off the screen.

 And timing wise more recently, the 1 min chart's positives at something like a "W" base and these have migrated showing a strong , building head of steam in the divergence.

That can be seen on this 3 min chart.

I believe it is probable that TLT pulls back a little intraday and offers a slightly better entry, even though this is more than good enough for me, but I'll wait a bit intraday looking for that better entry, then I'll be filling out the original trade plan and fill the second half, but this time with the TLT June 19th $120 calls I had originally intended. I couldn't get the order to go through so shorted TBT (the inverse of TLT) effectively creating a 2x leveraged TLT position. The remainder of the position size will be in the June 19th $120 calls.