Monday, June 15, 2015

A.M. Update

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. We spent part of ours cruising the intracoastal and taking our dogs swimming in Boca Lake, which is saltwater just before an inlet.

One of our dogs, Emma , our Vizsla.

In any case, markets around the world, especially Europe haven't taken well to the Greek/EU talks over the weekend that collapsed after only 45 minutes. Since, the EU has warned of a possible state of emergency as Greek bonds collapse and yields rocket higher, but also the other PIIGS including Spain, Italy and Portugal as the Greek contagion is very real and I would think would be in the EU's best interest to make sure if it's not going to have the ending they choose, that it has a very bad ending to discourage other anti-EU factions from becoming emboldened by a Greek exit from the EU. It seems the European Central Bank may do exactly that and cause bank runs by yanking emergency lending via one ,mechanism or another, creating chaos and what some think may end with a violent overthrow of the Greek government. I was truly serious when I wondered on Friday whether this could lead to some kind of armed conflict on the continent as it seems Angela Merkel is the only EU politician that understands why it's so important to the EU's survival to keep Greece in the fold, even at the cost of having nearly half of her party abandon her efforts.

Pretty much most of what I suspect about this week so far has been covered in last Friday's, The Week Ahead. Other than the F_O_M_C Wednesday which I think is a wild card, Greek news has't been anywhere near good, it never has and I doubt it ever will, it's just the inevitable conclusion is much closer and the stalling tactics have just about run out. Wednesday will not only be the F_O_M_C, but what the ECB chooses to do with Greece and I don't see it ending well for Greece or the EU.

As for futures, like world markets, down since weekend talks collapsed.

 ES/SPX futures gap down on the open of futures trading for the new week Sunday,

NQ / NASDAQ 100 futures and ES look like it's possible for an early bounce, but we'll have to see what the cash market looks like, IO don't see it being held unless something big changes and I don't see that right now with State of Emergencies being talked about in the EU.

 The $USD has seen a little of that near term upside I was expecting early this week, sending the EUR/USD lower early this week as expected.

Crude is also lower as expected...

And 30-year Treasury futures are at Friday's intraday highs and finding some resistance, but still gapped up.

We'll have a bust morning seeing what may stick as a gap fill and what may simply collapse. Lots of volatility this week with the F_O_M_C also.

 


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