TLT Position Update

This seems to be another great example of, "Patience Pays".

As you probably know, I'm looking for and expecting a strong counter trend bounce/ra;;y in TLT (20+ year treasuries- 30 year Treasuries). however before I could add a call position in addition to an equity long (short TBT-2x inverse TLT making a 2x long TLT position), TLT took off to the upside the last 2-days, but rather than chase it, I thought it best to just give it some time and it would come back to us, giving us a better long entry, a much better call/options entry and much better timing, the signs of a pullback or correction were there, now there are standing out.

This is why I don't chase trades, so long as there's a reasonable amount of evidence to suggest patience is the best bet, it's often worth it. This is much different than "hoping" it comes back.

As flor the longer term picture of a TLT bounce/counter trend rally...

 TLT daily chart with a channel buster/support break. There are a lot of Treasury shorts which is great initial momentum/fuel for a counter trend bounce/rally back above the long term trend line.

The last couple of days TLT has been up, I'm not one to chase an asset and believed it would come back down and offer us a better entry. Here TLT has met resistance and has a small reversal process in place suggesting there's a good chance of a pullback, giving us that call / options (or long) entry I've been looking for as the baser area matures.

Looking at the charts, it looks like this is a probability, from the shortest term, intraday or near term action first..

 The 2 min negative divgerence suggesting the near term pullback I've been expecting.

The same in the 3 min chart

While the 5 min chart is leading positive suggesting the basing area is nearly complete, there's a small near term relative negative divergence (red arrow) suggesting the pullback I've expected.

And despite a larger positive divergence on the 15 min chart, near term action shows a small negative suggesting a pullback.

The longer term 30 min chart shows the two areas of accumulation I consider to be 1 larger base, so I think the counter trend bounce/rally is still on.

As for 30 year Treasury futures... Starting with the bigger picture longer term charts and working down to short term action...

 60 min 30 year Treasury futures (/ZB) with the 2 positive divergence base areas I believe are 1 larger one, supportive of the counter trend rally theory.

The 30 min showing the positive at the right side or second base area.

And the 15 min showing the same with a weaker, smaller relative negative suggesting a near term pullback for our long entry/calls.

The shorter term 7 min chart suggesting a pullback like USO short term charts.

As well as the 5 min /ZB chart

And the 1 min intraday.

I'll be setting price alerts for reminders to look at TLT on a pullback for an entry area, likely calls in addition to the partial 2x long TLT position already in place.