Wednesday, June 17, 2015

A.M. Update

Overnight trade looks like everyone is standing art attention waiting for the F_E_D which is essentially the case.

 S&P futures trade remained flat most of the night until spme altos got bored, the excuse being that the market has ended green 80% of the time Yellen has spoken, thus risk on and that seemed to lose steam.

The overnight chart I was interested in seeing this morning is below so far and it looks as I would expect from everything else seen yesterday...
 15 min ES- It looks like someone gave the market a slight goosing at the small positive divergence and at the SPX 150-day moving averages and then backed away/sold in to it. Here's an easier way to see the same chart.

ES 15 min.

In any case, the market is totally ignoring the glaring, blazing, heaping train wreck that is Greece. The Greek Central bank was begging overnight for some kind, any kind of a deal as it forces rampant inflation as well as bank runs, capital controls, essentially nothing good from a Greek exit.

I wonder how many lives Greece has and if they are really finally hitting their 9th one.

The ECB should decide today whether to increase, leave the same , decrease or yank entirely the ELA emergency lending that is keeping Greek banks afloat, even if the ECB just left it at current levels which I doubt (I think they'll reduce it or the collateral's value), it would still create a banking crisis. Tomorrow is the EU meeting and Tsipras isn't making any friends.

Unless they miraculously came up with a deal last hour and I guess near-death experiences can make you more willing to cooperate, I just can't see how even getting a deal could save them at this time as it would still need to be approved by each respective's country's parliament and there are quite a few that want nothing to do with Greece.

This is the story the market is missing, the one that will creep up and bite the market on the butt. I guess we've all gotten to use to Greece having 9 lives and always surviving, I am not saying it's not possible, I just don't see it this time.

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