Market Update

Dull doesn't mean uneventful. There are some more interesting signals in the market as well as the ones that have been there. As we all know the F_O_M_C is a wild card, you have no idea what the tone will be, what market perception which is often wrong on this count as history has proven, will be and with stuttering, droning Janet Yellen (God bless her) you never know what cockamanie answer she might come up with on the fly of a tricky question at the Press conference, although I suspect she's mostly concerned about the criminal probe's secrecy (the leak of F_E_D data and still no one has been punished or even the results of an investigation released despite repeated calls from Congress to do so). A part of me thinks Yellen might almost shock the market with policy to draw attention away from the criminal probe, hey if they have to hike any way, why not use it as a distraction now?

While it's fun to speculate and be imaginative (something you can never have enough of with this market), I'll stick with the SPY example charts below.

 Intraday SPY charts are pretty dull as has been the price action, but lets step back a bit. Just as looking at a small snippet of a moving average is misleading and tells you nothing or even misdirects you, the bigger picture has more context and trend.

 This is this week's launch off the 150-day moving average that was expected as perceived support is built in the area of the 150-sma . The 3C chart, even on the fastest time frame is having a hard time of confirming price action, there is none as you see.

 An even longer look at the 2 min intraday through the month of June and we have excellent 3C confirmation of the price trend with several small divergences and one large one in the middle (negative) with the current move off the 150-day which I showed yesterday as unsupported, also failing.

Note the 2 bounces off the 150 moving average (white).

 I found the 5 min chart's trend interesting as well, it's a good timeframe for details, but strong signals as well. Note the May head fake move above the large ascending (bullish-looking)  triangle which we forecast in advance to not only occur before any significant downside, but to fail as a head fake move as it did. The chart does a good job of confirming price action and diverging where appropriate, again note the two tags of the SPX's 150-day moving average. Once again as with the last bounce off the 150 ma, this one is seeing a deeper negative divergence as well.

 Here's a closer look at the 5 min chart since the bounce off the 150 sma.

The TICK data may be dull today...

 In fact it just got duller at a range of about +/- 500, VERY mediocre.

However, this is why I created my custom TICK indicator to reveal the trend of intraday internals.

 Note the rapid falling off today relative to yesterday's short squeeze. We're actually moving in to the negative now.

And the trend since this week's bounce off the 150-ma. At the yellow area we have a short term capitulation or flameout event, then the internals you'd expect on this price trend and the internal;s you'd expect of a failing price trend in red, a lot of that is today.

There are more footsteps in the sand I'm uncovering, I'm not so sure we'll find a F_E_D leak, but the last time we did it was around this time. I doubt Yellen would like a second criminal probe, but in my opinion it's not those at the top who are well taken care of that do the leaking.