Quick USO Update

I'll be going to radio silence for the next hour or so in front of the F_E_D. News outlets already have the F_O_M_C policy statement , just on embargo, this way people like the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath (notorious F_E_D mouthpiece) can have 600 word commentary out 3 minutes after the F_O_M_C policy statement is released and commentators can speak like they are intelligent on the subject on the fly, thus it's a good time to be looking for leaks, again it does';t have to be the board of governors, in fact I doubt they are, but a half a million from an investment bak to some schlep at a financial media outlet might look rather appetizing.

As for USO, mostly as suspected, API volatility, EIA knocks the upside down which may become a pattern with the API data in the thing volume hours after the market close and the EIA right smack dab in the middle of the cash market, but more than that, if there's an improving situation with 3 consecutive weeks of draws now, Wall St. will want in  and in bigger size, it sounds counter-intuitive to what Technical Analysis teaches about institutional buying, but they aren't  going to chase prices higher, they'll knock them down and buy as cheaply as possible which is why  I've been expecting USO to break back under the base area's resistance (top) trend line around $20.25 convincingly and finish its basing work there before a potential primary trend upside reversal that can hold.

 Note the 3C trend, it has been moving lower mostly in downside price confirmation. The little bump in USO didn't move 3C, it continues lower as if price should too and now price is, the hallmark of a small head fake move.

 Crude futures larger 10 min chart shows the same trend lower with a head fake move in crude , mostly on the API data, which looks like a nice little manipulation arrangement they've been using the last few weeks.

 As for the 2 min intraday USO chart, note the negative divergence in to the last EIA release on Wednesday the 10th and the one in to today which is much larger even before the leading negative divergence.  This is one of the reasons I've kept the USO puts and equity short open.

 This is the daily chart and base, note the head fake move above a flag-like price pattern, it's a channel buster of sorts (small).

And a closer look, usually channel busters once they fail, have a fast reversal (to the downside in this case), we already have a bearish engulfing daily candle, but I still would like to see a convincing break below the $20 area, then we can manage these trades and start looking at the next.