Market Update

I think Yellen has said pretty much everything the market will react to. I think it's very clear there's a knee jerk reaction, it's not the strongest we've seen, in fact it's not much different than a 1-day oversold condition, that's not a change in trends either price or underlying.

Greece appears to have gotten a reprieve from the ECB for the moment  regarding the Emergency Lending facility which means Greek Banks will open tomorrow, however a deal is not clenched, it seems we re no closer to a deal tomorrow, one is not expected tomorrow and there's a large rally in Athens for Syria to stick to its guns, whether they understand what that will mean 3 months from now or not is not clear. It also appears numerous countries in Europe are making plans to shield themselves from a Greek default, the UK is the latest today.

As for the charts, I would not say this is the time to jump in to anything, however there are hints that the time is probably not far off. There are initial signs after the knee jerk move that are not only telling us this is a knee jerk move, but that it is starting to lose some of its juice.

Since this is very early in this particular move, we have to go with what we have, which is why I believe patience is still the right course. Would I have chased the knee jerk move with sufficient evidence to call it a high probability? Not unless I could say I also knew what the outcome of the Greek situation will be with high confidence. Otherwise, you're inviting overnight disaster.

Here are some chart examples of early signals coming in... Remember these are intraday, not any different than the intraday charts posted just before the F_O_M_C, which covered pretty much all the same assets, Market Update and Initial Trade Plan...

 SPY intraday deteriorating

 QQQ intraday

IWM intraday

VXX intraday seeing some positive reaction building

ES is really unchanged from the overnight trend, as for the knee jerk it is deteriorating as of the time of this capture.

The TICK has lost pretty much any sense of trend.

I'd prefer to let things mellow out a bit more, give very clear short term signals, but I think there's very little reason to believe this was anything more than what Im always warn of, a F_E_D based knee jerk reaction which are almost always the wrong reaction and usually retraced within a couple of days, sometimes more, sometimes much less.