So far it looks like a knee jerk reaction, not a particularly strong one. The actual policy statement had some very hawkish (not good for the market) aspects to it, such as nearly 2/3rds of members seeing interest rates at the end of the year reflecting 2 rate hikes this year, all but guaranteeing a September hike.
We still have the volatility and knee jerk movement of Yellen's press conference, I think that's where we'll see the most volatility.
Keep your eye on the NYSE intraday TICK, it should give early warning and tell you a lot more about the internals of the move. For instance, things are moving fast right now, but you want to see a bigger trend, still it foreshadowed intraday weakness on about a 1-2 min timeframe.
TICK breaking the channel, price stalling. The market is getting nervous in front of the Yellen press conference, however as I said, I think that's where we see volatility, that's where we likely see the moves that set up trades that have strong probabilities.
Patience is hard with a market moving like this, but I think if you're not competing on an HFT speed table, you shouldn't try to fight that fight, you'll lose. Make the market fight on your terms.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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