Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Quick Update

So far it looks like a knee jerk reaction, not a particularly strong one. The actual policy statement had some very hawkish (not good for the market) aspects to it, such as nearly 2/3rds of members seeing interest rates at the end of the year reflecting 2 rate hikes this year, all but guaranteeing a September hike.

We still have the volatility and knee jerk movement of Yellen's press conference, I think that's where we'll see the most volatility.

Keep your eye on the NYSE intraday TICK, it should give early warning and tell you a lot more about the internals of the move. For instance, things are moving fast right now, but you want to see a bigger trend, still it foreshadowed intraday weakness on about a 1-2 min timeframe.

TICK breaking the channel, price stalling. The market is getting nervous in front of the Yellen press conference, however as I said, I think that's where we see volatility, that's where we likely see the moves that set up trades that have strong probabilities.

Patience is hard with a market moving like this, but I think if you're not competing on an HFT speed table, you shouldn't try to fight that fight, you'll lose. Make the market fight on your terms.

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