Wednesday, June 10, 2015

EAI Oil Inventories 10:30

The Crude futures chart has continues to deteriorate, I don't know if this may be a leak of the EIA print due out at 10:30 just as API and EIA diverged last week, but I'm going to wait for the EIA report at 10:30 before making any moves to fill out yesterday's speculative (half size) USO position (short/put), TRADE IDEA: USO (Speculative)

 USO daily with two happy smaller bodied candles. Ideally today's would form a bearish engulfing or Dark Cloud cover (downside reversal candlestick signal).

 Since yesterday's 4:30 pm EDT API oil inventories draw and despite Saudi production now at a new record high, this is the overnight Crude futures action with the pre-market negative divergence getting worse, but I still want to wait for EIA as there's often quite a bit of volatility that can be used as well as to judge the reaction, but I suspect the Saudi increase in output is what is fueling this negative divergence right now.

The cash market hasn't been open as long, but there's a 1 min intraday negative forming, I should have caught this late day positive in to a flat range, although I'm not sure I would have traded it as a small divergence, but it looks like the API print was leaked before it was released only a couple of hours later.

I pick up on where I'm leaving off here after the 10:30 EIA petrol inventories.

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