Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Quick Futures Update

I'd almost enter a speculative VXX call or SPY/QQQ put right now, but I think this is the time to be thinking about the bigger picture and being as sure as we can about the timing and types of positions we use.

In any case, just as the averages have been deteriorating all day after they lost all of the short squeeze upside momentum, so too have Index futures.

The point not so much being about a trade,  the point more being that we are seeing the distribution on price strength created by manipulating predictable technical traders after 3 weeks of loss, all they needed was to shakeout traders with a break of the SPX 100 day moving average and then squeeze shorts with a break above the 100-day moving average. These charts are what we expected to see, the evidence of distribution rather than confirmation, of a head fake rather than a move that intends to hold and build on itself.

 ES/SPX E-mini futures 1 min intraday

NQ/NASDAQ 100 1 min intraday futures.

Pother than the short squeeze earlier, internals have lost any positive momentum as price has been largely lateral through most of the day once the short squeeze was used up.

I'm going to check leading indicators. If I feel there's a solid trade that will last through the overnight session, I'll post it, otherwise we're on the right track, it's just letting the market do its job and watching and listening to the message of the market until we are at a high probability/low risk/well timed trade.

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