Wednesday, July 1, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning,

Well the 1-day oversold condition from Monday, the reversal process from Tuesday has brought us to the bounce portion forecast today and it's pretty impressive.

Almost from the close yesterday Index futures have been creeping higher and then got a boost when a leak said that Greek PM Tsipras was ready to accept almost all of the terms set out by "The Creditors", although this has been not directly confirmed as of yet.

Merkel has once again made it clear that the EU will wait until AFTER the referendum before taking up the issue as Greece labors under bank holidays and capital controls, which is slowly eroding the "No" vote majority.

One thing though on the chart above, that's the 3 min version that was positive yesterday, note it's negative today in to the gains overnight, so is the 1 min intraday and the 5 min that was also positive yesterday, it appears there has been quite a bit of selling in to this oversold bounce.

This doesn't mean I plan on closing the IWM calls opened yesterday late in the day, in fact Russell 2000 Futures are in line overnight,
TF 1 min in line overnight

So I'll look for signals in the cash market 3C charts and decide when to take action.

Speaking of which, selling TLT calls yesterday was right in time as the 30 year Treasury futures fell hard overnight.
30 year Treasury futures since yesterday's close.

It looks like all of the trades we have taken profits on this week in anticipation of re-opening them at better prices with longer expirations, are playing right in to our hands with yesterday's IWM calls going to be up nicely as well.

I've already had quite a few emails this morning from members taking the counter trend oversold bounce trade in one instrument or another letting me know what kind of gains they are looking at this morning.

Does anyone remember what I said about counter trend rallies in a bear market? They are some of the strongest you'll ever see so be prepared for a lot more fun, a lot more true fast money and to be on your toes as you saw the navigation this week has taken so far.

While the EU awaits the Greek referendum, we await the cash market for signals as to where we go next.

Have a great day!

No comments: