Wednesday, July 1, 2015

*MARKET UPDATE

The tone of the open so far is somewhat similar to the tone of the overnight 3C charts, not all that bright. In fact it seems to me that the newsless several days until the referendum looked like a good place to pull off an oversold bounce and that's what we have, but it seems to me the market did not like the fact that (according to the FT), Greek PM Tsipras pretty much caved in and the "Creditors" didn't respond, I suspect the market wanted to see some sort of response and boost to the 1-day oversold condition.

There are several reasons I think this, we could infer that from the opening 3C charts which are not confirming, much like ES through the overnight session.

 SPY bounce divergence , but to the right this morning there's a lack of 3C confirmation which should be at a higher high.

Taking a closer look, the QQQ shows the divergence this morning.

As does the IWM, but this could be chalked up to a lot of things this early, the chart that really hit me is the market manipulation lever HYG...

It's falling this morning almost as if they've lost heart when Tsipras' overture was rejected out of hand. Typically HYG is used as a short term lever to ramp the market and it was set up yesterday, but so far this morning it almost looks like it's being packed in.

And intraday TICK, we had one spike on the open, but otherwise it is VERY mellow thus far.

I'll keep watching and may take the speculative IWM trade gains soon, it's more resetting the recently closed positions I'm more focussed on.

No comments: