TLT Update

Yesterday we closed TLT calls for a nice gain, today they would have been at a loss. For those of you (most) who are familiar with the larger counter trend rally trade in TLT, I'm pretty close to entering either a new set of calls or a TLT long or leveraged long position to add to the partial TLT 2x long 1/2 position (equity) in place, although I'm not quite ready at this moment, but sitting very uncomfortably on the fence.

 This is the TLT daily chart, the range just below the long term trend line is pretty obvious. The last two days (yellow) formed a Tweezer Top downside candlestick reversal in addition to a Doji Star yesterday. Today's star is tempting to open a long/call position, however there are still some charts I'm not completely comfortable with. Also if today's Star had been on increasing volume, I'd be much more likely to open a position here.

 TLT 2 min chart with the negative divergence yesterday that caused us to pull the plug on the TLT calls at a gain, but not much of an intraday positive divergence today.

 The 5 min chart has an overall nice trend that has been moving more and more positive to the right side of the chart.

As has been this stronger 10 min chart.

The 30 min chart looks exceptionally strong and if it weren't for a lack of short term divergences today, I'd probably be opening new positions here.

I can certainly understand partial positions here with space to add.

 The 30 year Treasury future don't look as good, but these charts move a lot faster and often will change in a day or so giving an excellent timing signal. Intraday the 1 min chart is already showing positive activity today.

As is the 3 min chart, but as you may recall yesterday, I look for at least a 5 min divergence here before any trades in the direction of that divergence and we haven't made it that far yet.

The 7 min chart is still reflecting yesterday's negative and the in line status since then.

As is the 10 min chart. However these can change quickly and tomorrow might be a different set of signals with the TLT charts already looking pretty good so I'm going to be patient for another day, although I couldn't blame anyone for opening a partial position, leaving some room to add at better prices or timing.

A counter trend run above the long term daily chart trend line would be an insanely strong trade as thick as the shorts are in Treasuries.