OK, theEuroGroup teleconference has ended, the result, no deal or talks until after the Greek Sunday July 5th referendum, this isn't news, Merkel made this clear first thing yesterday morning and has kept a consistent message since even in the face of news that Tsipras was ready to accept the bailout terms with "minor" adjustments, it looks like the EU is looking for a Yes vote and different leadership after the referendum before wasting anymore time with Tsipras, but again this is not news.
This morning's strangeness which has all outward appearances of a failing bounce set-up, which is rare once Wall Street sets up a cycle, even a 1-day oversold bounce cycle, they rarely abandon it unless there was incredibly good reason.
When looking at the charts more closely, VIX/VXX and VIX futures are not behaving the way their charts should if indeed the market bounce set-up was failing as it has appeared to be all this morning, that's the one piece of the puzzle that just doesn't fir and why I've been a bit patient in looking for the objective evidence rather than just being swayed by price action.
It appears we have one of the first signs that maybe all is not as it appears, I wouldn't say there hasn't been distribution in to higher prices overnight and through the day today, that's granted and to be expected, although heavier than expected this early.
However we may have the first chart divergence that is pointing to the dichotomy between VIX futures and the market, the first sign that all is not as it appears.
*There may be additional signs , actually there are additional signs which is what I was talking about in the last post, but these are the first to see a change intraday that weren't already there at the open. As for other charts, I haven't had time to go through all of them, but I'd think there are additional signs of intraday changes in character.
The 1 min SPY should look familiar by now, the opening negative divergence which was a probability based on the overnight and early a.m. Index futures as seen in this morning's A.M. Update.
However since the EuroGroup call ended and the apparent bad news which is really no news at all, that there will be no negotiations until after the Greek referendum, we have seen the SPY intraday 1 min put in a positive divergence.
And one of the charts not making sense is the SPY 3 min which does have some intraday damage at the red arrow, but otherwise is till in a leading positive divergence. I'd think if distribution were really heavy, this 3 min chart would look a lot worse by now.
Remember the VIX divergences that don't fit, well intraday 1 min they have looked like they should vs the SPY intraday 1 min, but are now putting in a negative divergence intraday as well confirming the SPY 1 min positive divergence as the two trade opposite each other.
And as far as the VXX 3 min chart goes, it is still in a deep leading negative divgernece that "should " look a lot better just as the SPY 3 min should look a lot worse. These are signs of the larger deviations between the assets from the open which have had me suspicious of the intraday activity thus far.
While the Custom TICK indicator shows the short term oversold event at #1 and the reversal process improvement at #2 with today's deterioration at #3, it's not reflecting the most recent TICK data, for that we go right to the NYSE TICK.
Note the trend all this morning has confirmed price action, but just recently broke above the channel at the SPY 1 min positive divergence.
It looks like there may be an intraday change, it could be some short term noise, but that doesn't resolve the differences between VXX/VIX futures and the market averages not confirming.
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