Thursday, July 2, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning. Remember tomorrow US markets will be closed in observance of the 4th of July.

Overnight China's markets lost more ground despite the PBoC throwing everything except QE at the market, the politicians telling financial media to only report on positive stories, trading costs cut and margin rules relaxed. Still the Shanghai Comp. was down -3.46% overnight and well over -20% off its highs.

In Europe most everything is still quiet until the Sunday referendum, however the Swiss Riksbank did increase their ineffective QE with another rate cut from -.25% to -.35% to the key rate and boosted asset purchases by $45 bn to start in September.

Te market did gain some ground overnight, but was still somewhat flat waiting for the US Non-Farms Payroll data.

 ES overnight since the cash close yesterday.

Note the Payrolls miss sent Index futures higher at 8:30 a.m.

Payrolls missed at +223k vs consensus of 230k and the previous was revised lower from 280k to 245k. The worst part however was hourly earnings, expected to increase +0.2%, remained flat, this strengthens the perception that the F_E_D will have to hold off longer on a rate hike, as such the $USD fell as the EUR/USD gained.

Treasuries also rallied on the payrolls data from overnight losses (futures).

Other than that, oil futures are looking a bit interesting, almost like a near term low is in so we'll be watching USO closely.
Crude futures.

As for the market, it looks like we'll have our continued/expected bounce , but for how long? I;'d be surprised if it went in to the weekend with the Greek Referendum and a long weekend coming up, so we'll definitely be watching for signs of distribution and a possible downside reversal early next week, in which case we'll want to get new put positions ready today, but lets not put the cart before the horse, that's just an opinion for now.

Have a great trading day and I'll see you in a little bit.

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