In looking at the charts below, I have to remind you this is not a situation in which we weigh the pros against the cons and make a decision and take a position, that's an attitude that reflects the notion that there are only long or short positions, there are also stand aside positions and that's what I will do for the moment until/unless I get better data.
Remember a high probability / low risk trade is not about probabilities alone, it's about high probabilities, charts that jump off the screen and can't be ignored, barring that you are just taking what you think are the best odds rather than excellent odds.
Along those lines, so far this is what we have....
TICK intraday with some slight improvement.
Our custom TICK indicator is showing improvement as well. As I said, "probabilities", not necessarily the same thing as high probability/low risk trades.
The 1 min intraday SPY looks the best, going positive.
There's migration to the 2 min chart...
The 3 min chart's trend is leading, intraday it's in line, not positive as of now.
This is probably the best case argument for a speculative call position/long very short term.
The QQQ 1 min isn't nearly as developed as the SPY.
The 2 min QQQ is in line.
While the 5 min IWM chart seems to show us a "W" pattern base that should move higher, the problem is timing.
The intraday chart hasn't gone positive which means it can continue moving lower even if it is a base, meaning our entry wouldn't have a high probability timing signal as you can se above.
This to me is the scales of evidence, weighing one side against another and making a decision, that's the kind of analysis I reject. I want the charts to scream, to be so powerful and convincing that they can't be ignored. I'd say probabilities favor an upside move from here, we have felt that way since Monday's deep plunge, however I have about as much long risk as I can justify at the moment.
This may change as the 2 pm hour is upon us and the max-pain op-ex pins are removed, so stay tuned.
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