Early Indications

I'm really quite surprised by how bad the market looks this morning vs. what I'd expect it to look like, the only thing I can come up with thus far is options expiration max-pain pin, which is today as the market is closed tomorrow.

I can't post every chart, but to give you an idea...

 SPY 1 min intraday is in line or better, price action is not as bullish as the 3C intraday chart is.

The IWM is in line on the downside intraday 1 min

 However both, or all of the averages remain very positive on the slightly longer/stronger charts such as this IWM 2 min chart (again I can post a lot of examples, but this is the theme). At first look I considered whether this might be a larger "W" base which would rally us in to next week, but it's hard to say as it is an options expiration Friday and the max-pain pin should be in effect.

 Furthermore, the 3+ min VXX charts (which are also in line intraday) are confirming the SPY, QQQ, IWM 3min positive charts with this deep leading negative. This isn't the kind of chart I'd envision repairing itself in a day, nor are the 2-3 min positive (even 5-10 min positives) in the averages the kind of charts I'd envision falling apart in  day.

To give even more evidence toward the bullish temperament of the slightly stronger charts beyond intraday alone that could bounce us in to next week, HYG, the first lever of market manipulation has a leading positive 3 min chart and something like a double/ "W" bottom in place.

Thus this morning's VERY mediocre action in my view can only be summed up as the max-pain op-ex pin which should last until about 2 pm, however with a 3-day holiday weekend there are likely very few carbon based traders that haven't already left for the Hamptons.

The intraday TICK is out of yesterday's channel, but doesn't look that bad.

Thus it is a surprisingly dull and weak open, but based on the charts I suspect it's either because of the max-pain op-ex pin in which case it should release around 2 pm today or the market is building an even larger base from which to bounce, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me going in to the Greek referendum weekend, but perhaps Wall St. figures it will take a day or two after the vote on Sunday for the EU and Greece to figure out what it means going forward, either that or perhaps they see the Yes vote taking over and Syriza on its way out with a more technocratic government to replace it and sign on to whatever the Troika wants, thus kicking the Greece can in to the future and it no longer is a market concern at least until the next emergency in which it will have become even more dire.

That last bit was opinion, we'll wait for the charts, but I just don't see the market breaking down here with as many charts as there are that are still exceptionally near term supportive. I suspect this must be op-ex related.