Thursday, July 2, 2015

Closing Indications

I still think the most probable outcome is for a bounce early next week, perhaps even a quite spectacular one, but the charts are hesitant and why shouldn't they be? I'm not sure how Wall St. can have better inside information than anyone else as to how Greeks vote on Sunday.

Thus I think probabilities favor an early week bounce, but the intraday charts today are not providing those signals that jump off the chart and can't be ignored, that means the difference between probabilities and a high probability / low risk trade is pretty definitive and as such, I see no reason to add any more long risk than the current IWM calls in place.

I see very little reason to close core shorts unless you are a very active trader, my view point is I want my core positions to be aligned with the path of least resistance and highest probabilities, if anything is up in the air, price will come down on the side of highest probabilities on a big picture basis.

It may even be that early next week we get the signals that give us opportunities to open new positions long or short. The current base for a bounce could be in place to bounce on a favorable outcome and offer enough time to get new shorts in place on an unfavorable outcome, thus patience is key in my view unless you rather just make a bet, but I think there are some sites taking actual bets with high payouts, I don't think the market is the best place to make a bet.

We'll see what happens Sunday night as Greek referendum results start coming in and futures for the new week open, until then, I wish you all a very happy and safe...


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