Op-Ex 2PM Update

Usually an op-ex pin, pins around a certain level, today has been more of a moving target, but if history has been a guide, then around 2 pm  most contracts are settled and the op-ex max-pain pin is released.

There are subtle signs the market is making that right hand turn, but all in all it's giving off a very negative tone, I'm wondering if it's not for a big surprise.

As for a wider "W" base, the IWM right now is in the exact position of such a base, although it would have to show 3C accumulation/confirmation of the head fake low that breaks support of the first "W" support pivot and soon.

 IWM possible larger "W" base with a head fake/stop run below the first "W" support pivot which is the common "W" pattern.

The price-based implied target of such a base would be in the $128 area which is interesting considering the weekend.

 The SPY intraday with ROC applied to price to better see the sideways bias shows the earlier down and the more recent turn to the side that's easier to see with the help of price ROC.

The Q's are showing the same thing as we near the 2 p.m. hour.

The NYSE TICK has been trending in this channel all day, so a break above the channel would be a significant early warning of an upside move in to the 2 p.m. hour.

HYG in Green is outperforming the SPY in red, which is unusual as HY Credit would be the first to sell off unless as we have seen so many times, it's being used as a lever for market support.

I'm reinstalling my minute data for my normal 3C indicator, there was a corruption of about 30 minutes missing so it's a lengthy process to reinstall it all, but it should be done in about 10 mins.

Until then, the intraday Index futures have gone positive and right on cue before the 2 pm hour, interestingly though today's price action doesn't feel like a normal op-ex max pain pin, however I think there's more to the story than meets the eye with early price action only.

So far the Index futures look like this intraday.

 ES is positive

NQ is positive

TF for the first time has put in the first divergence, otherwise in line over the last 30+ hours, turning positive. That's 3 assets confirming and the 4th...

VIX futures should confirm with a negative and there it is.

I'll add additional 3C charts as soon as the minute data has reinstalled, but it looks like this could be a bigger base for a bigger bounce for whatever reason that we are not privy to. Once I see the other 3C charts for the IWM, I'll decide whether I'll take that short term call position in the IWM up to full size. Keep an eye on the NYSE TICK's trend and a break of it as early warning.