Went with AAPL Nov. $625 Calls

Again this is for a shorter term trade like the last one.

Going to Add to FAS, TNA and AAPL

I'm going to fill out the FAS and TNA positions. I feel it' a little early for FAS, but I'm going to go ahead with it (it's still speculative).

AAPL I'm going to add Calls again, November and in the money, not sure which strike yet.

AAPL update coming.

FB Update-Earnings Today

FB is reporting earnings today after the close, I will keep a close eye on it to see if there is what looks to be an earnings leak. Beyond that, I'm still focussed on FB as a longer term trade putting together a longer term base, earnings aren't of much interest to me because unless I see an earnings leak and we have seen a lot of those, earnings are a wildcard and it's the guidance that really matters and that often isn't discounted immediately, at least not like the headline report, usually guidance is discounted in the days ahead. One quarter about a year ago I wanted to show members that leaks are very real. I searched just about every company that was reporting, I wasn't looking for miss or beat, the charts can't tell you that; I was looking for the reaction after earnings based on unusual trade before earnings, we hit 19 of 22 correctly if I recall and GOOG we hit correctly except the GOOG signal didn't come until 15 minutes before the close and their report! So there are leaks out there, not everywhere, but when they show up, they are hard to ignore.

FB has had some unusual trade recently, I'm not sure I would call it proof of a leak, but if there were other evidence showing up today it would add credibility.

 All the way back at the start of August, we saw a quick trade to the upside, but I said it would be short because FB was looking like it was going to build a large base (thus the upside trade couldn't go too far as a base would have to be formed), since then, that appears to be exactly what has happened. I'm not sure what I would call this price pattern and I don't think it matters, it's a wide range, but a range nonetheless.

 FB acted well this morning vs the market, up at one point about +1.5% in early trade on volume.

 Here's the recent rounding area where the market is expected to make more of a range. If you look at the FB range above and divide it up in to 5 sections and look at any one of those sections by itself, it's impossible to see the range or the bigger picture, that's something important to remember now (not that I would imply that a market range will be anywhere near this large).

 1 min intraday FB was positive yesterday and early this a.m. on the gap down, it just put in a relative negative divergence that should pull it back.

 This 2 min chart shows some unusual behavior with a very large leading positive in the area, however it's not that far off from the same seen in the market so it's hard to call that a sign of an earnings leak.

 The 15 min chart overall looks excellent, especially since October.

 Here's a closer look at the 15 min chart.

This is another unusual chart that is not seen in the market, a 30 min leading positive divergence, most market averages are around 10-15 min positives, but not leading like this and none are at 30 minutes, this is the closest thing I can see on the chart to unusual trade or a possible upside earnings leak.

I'll keep watching for additional developments.

Market Update

I am considering adding to the TNA position started Friday, I'd like to look at other assets more closely and see which looks the best here before making that decision, but there's improvement in the IWM that was seemingly out of rotation yesterday as large caps were slightly favored.

As for the market update, the SPY, IWM and ES 1 min charts are acting well as intraday indicators so I'm looking at those.

 The overall ES 1 min positive divergence that started around 5 a.m. this morning, after the 3 a.m. European open that saw additional downside, but much of the downside had already been in place as ES went negative yesterday in after hours as the Moody's news was released on the 5 Spanish Regions. Again, I can't say anyone knew about Moody's specifically, but it was well known that the Spanish Regions bailout fund was tapped with less than 5% of its capability left, therefore a downgrade of Spain or the regions would not have been a surprise, however as pointed out to another member, yesterday's Market Watch F_O_M_C article that sent the market surging higher toward the close is not part of a controlled range, it seems something was needed to act as a counter balance to the Market Watch news, in effect holding VWAP down and within a range that institutional money often demands orders be filled at. What is especially fishy in this while ordeal is that the bulk of the ES (S&P futures-which determine the SPX cash open) came during the extremely low volume overnight trade. If you're not following the implication, the market would be VERY easy to move in that low overnight volume market and have a more profound effect on the open as ES determines the SPX cash open, in essence halting and undoing some of the frothy end of day trade yesterday from the Market Watch article. Smart money or institutional money is not going to accumulate share chasing the market higher.

 ES close up since the 9:30 US open, also positive intraday.

 The IWM 1 min as of yesterday acting as a good intraday indicator as the 1 min chars often do, however...

 The progress in the IWM is still there as seen on this 5 min chart, it's just measured on longer term charts as the 1 min will often act as an intraday indicator.

 Here's the IWM 1 min zoomed in to the intraday signals that it has been giving, around 10:30 it looks like intraday the IWM saw accumulation of the lows, ES has the same signal at the same time.

 The SPY 1 min was acting as a decent intraday indicator, this is why I didn't use the 1 min SPY in opening indications because after the Market Watch article it transitioned from intraday to something else with an extreme move that was not characteristic for the way the SPY 1 min chart had been behaving.

Looking at the SPY 1 min zoomed in though, again as the intraday indicator it had been acting as, it also went positive intraday around the same 10:30 a.m. area and lading positive since, this played a part in my decision with regard to FXP timing in closing the position.

I'll be looking at which assets I like the best as far as the charts and will hopefully be able to add to them at lower prices here.

FXP sold

The position loss is less than 1%, the total portfolio loss is less that 1/10th of 1% on a pretty sizable position.

I'll be Closing FXP-China Short Soon

I like FXP, I like China short, however FXP has too much of an inverse correlation with the market right now, I do think it will be among the first to break, but for now, China short is moving too closely (inversely) correlated with the market, thus this morning's drop allows me to exit the position at just about zero loss on the position or pretty close, depending on where the exit is.

While the FXP longer term charts look excellent in FXP, the short term charts are not there and this is a perfect example of an asset that is up this morning, but NOT seeing any short term chart confirmation.

FXP charts...

 Longer term FXP should see a huge move up, I thin it will have to wait though for a market move up/shakeout. 15 min chart leading positive over a long period, a large base.

 FXP 60 min chart with another large positive divergence.

 This is what bothers me right now and looks like opportunity cost as the 1 min chart didn't even move up to confirm FXP's gap up on the market gap down (remember inverse correlation).

 The 2 min chart is worse.

The 5 min chart hasn't made any move.

In fact, looking at intraday trade, I'll probably be closing FXP now, for now, but longer term I'll be coming back to this one.

Opening Indications

Opening Indication have held up surprisingly well, this is part of the reason I decided to go ahead and fill out the TQQQ position, it was phased in to so it could be added to at better prices so long as the charts held up, that happened this morning so I went ahead with that move. Early morning extreme's tend to be faded by the close more often than not.

I wanted to wait and see how Financials and other sectors like Energy come along before making any decisions there.

Here are the opening charts as well as the NYSE TICK chart.

 DIA 1 min didn't even skip a beat, this i the fastest chart and would have responded well before now, especially on heavy movement in underlying trade, it didn't.


 Since I feel the 1 min chart is a little fluffy over the last 30 minutes of yesterday, I looked a t a little longer 3 min chart, still fast enough to respond intraday and it has held up very well also. Longer timeframes are fine too.


 This is the first really CLEAR positive divergence of the entire overnight session and quite clear, this is another reason for adding to the TQQQ position early on today to fill it out.

 Yesterday I talked a lot about ranges and this morning certainly disrupts a range, but we have seen that before on more than 1 occasion, sometimes such disruptions serve as a sort of head fake move, still compared to the last 2 ranges in the QQQ, even this morning's drop doesn't destroy the range, it widens it for now, but it's still well within the volatility of previous ranges before reversals, although we will be looking for a larger reversal so the range may in fact be larger or more volatile.

 QQQ 1 min also didn't make any real movement of any note on today's opening move or since.

 The slightly longer 3 min chart looks even better than the DIA, this is part of the reason for choosing the TQQQ position this a.m.

 SPY 2 min also looks good, the 1 min held together fine as well, it just has more of an intraday look to it with an overreaction I feel to late yesterday's Market Watch F_O_M_C rumor.

 Going out further to  10 min chart, I don't expect these to react as quickly, but if there were large scale underlying deterioration it may very well show up on one of the larger scale charts, thus I checked the longer scale charts as well to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

As for the TICK chart, it definitely reacted to the opening drop with a sub-1500 print, but only for a minute before it returned to less extreme readings and is currently around the -500 to -800 range which is a range we have seen the last day so it's not too extreme. The TICK Index is all NYSE stocks advancing less all NYSE stocks declining for that bar or Tick.

Adding TQQQ second half Here

Looking at the opening indications, thus far they are holding up very well, I'll give them a bit more time before getting too aggressive, but I will complete the TQQQ position here and add the second half at these prices.

I'll put the opening indications up next.

Overnight Market Move

I have a feeling this is more gamesmanship than actual smart money moving big positions around simply because these events to a large degree are nothing new, nothing that likely hasn't been discounted, but market movement is money.

In any case, if you're looking for reasons ES went from a full tilt move up at the close yesterday on a r Watch article about the F_O_M_C announcement tomorrow to the depths of despair seemingly overnight, it was all about the EU's final domino, Spain.

Here's ES overnight...

 In the after hours session Moody's downgraded 5 of Spain's Regions, so it's as simple as that, Moody's downgrades 5 Spanish Regions, they are likely to need more money as borrowing costs move rise because of the downgrade and the $18bn Eur Spanish Regions bailout fund has .8bn left in it, but that has been known since last week. This really isn't news, but the market will react and did.

Furthermore Spain is also reported to miss their EU imposed 2012 deficit targets (not really new news).
(EU open at the white arrow)

European open at the white arrow.

ES has a positive divergence, the first of the night in to the open.

Next market moving event comes tomorrow as the F_O_M_C meeting ends and they make their policy announcement.

Opening ES

We'll get to what rocked ES futures overnight, for now here's the opening indications for ES, which have at least something on the positive side this a.m.

ES positive divergence in to the open, the first of the night