Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Market Update

I am considering adding to the TNA position started Friday, I'd like to look at other assets more closely and see which looks the best here before making that decision, but there's improvement in the IWM that was seemingly out of rotation yesterday as large caps were slightly favored.

As for the market update, the SPY, IWM and ES 1 min charts are acting well as intraday indicators so I'm looking at those.

 The overall ES 1 min positive divergence that started around 5 a.m. this morning, after the 3 a.m. European open that saw additional downside, but much of the downside had already been in place as ES went negative yesterday in after hours as the Moody's news was released on the 5 Spanish Regions. Again, I can't say anyone knew about Moody's specifically, but it was well known that the Spanish Regions bailout fund was tapped with less than 5% of its capability left, therefore a downgrade of Spain or the regions would not have been a surprise, however as pointed out to another member, yesterday's Market Watch F_O_M_C article that sent the market surging higher toward the close is not part of a controlled range, it seems something was needed to act as a counter balance to the Market Watch news, in effect holding VWAP down and within a range that institutional money often demands orders be filled at. What is especially fishy in this while ordeal is that the bulk of the ES (S&P futures-which determine the SPX cash open) came during the extremely low volume overnight trade. If you're not following the implication, the market would be VERY easy to move in that low overnight volume market and have a more profound effect on the open as ES determines the SPX cash open, in essence halting and undoing some of the frothy end of day trade yesterday from the Market Watch article. Smart money or institutional money is not going to accumulate share chasing the market higher.

 ES close up since the 9:30 US open, also positive intraday.

 The IWM 1 min as of yesterday acting as a good intraday indicator as the 1 min chars often do, however...

 The progress in the IWM is still there as seen on this 5 min chart, it's just measured on longer term charts as the 1 min will often act as an intraday indicator.

 Here's the IWM 1 min zoomed in to the intraday signals that it has been giving, around 10:30 it looks like intraday the IWM saw accumulation of the lows, ES has the same signal at the same time.

 The SPY 1 min was acting as a decent intraday indicator, this is why I didn't use the 1 min SPY in opening indications because after the Market Watch article it transitioned from intraday to something else with an extreme move that was not characteristic for the way the SPY 1 min chart had been behaving.

Looking at the SPY 1 min zoomed in though, again as the intraday indicator it had been acting as, it also went positive intraday around the same 10:30 a.m. area and lading positive since, this played a part in my decision with regard to FXP timing in closing the position.

I'll be looking at which assets I like the best as far as the charts and will hopefully be able to add to them at lower prices here.

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