Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Opening Indications

Opening Indication have held up surprisingly well, this is part of the reason I decided to go ahead and fill out the TQQQ position, it was phased in to so it could be added to at better prices so long as the charts held up, that happened this morning so I went ahead with that move. Early morning extreme's tend to be faded by the close more often than not.

I wanted to wait and see how Financials and other sectors like Energy come along before making any decisions there.

Here are the opening charts as well as the NYSE TICK chart.

 DIA 1 min didn't even skip a beat, this i the fastest chart and would have responded well before now, especially on heavy movement in underlying trade, it didn't.


 Since I feel the 1 min chart is a little fluffy over the last 30 minutes of yesterday, I looked a t a little longer 3 min chart, still fast enough to respond intraday and it has held up very well also. Longer timeframes are fine too.


 This is the first really CLEAR positive divergence of the entire overnight session and quite clear, this is another reason for adding to the TQQQ position early on today to fill it out.

 Yesterday I talked a lot about ranges and this morning certainly disrupts a range, but we have seen that before on more than 1 occasion, sometimes such disruptions serve as a sort of head fake move, still compared to the last 2 ranges in the QQQ, even this morning's drop doesn't destroy the range, it widens it for now, but it's still well within the volatility of previous ranges before reversals, although we will be looking for a larger reversal so the range may in fact be larger or more volatile.

 QQQ 1 min also didn't make any real movement of any note on today's opening move or since.

 The slightly longer 3 min chart looks even better than the DIA, this is part of the reason for choosing the TQQQ position this a.m.

 SPY 2 min also looks good, the 1 min held together fine as well, it just has more of an intraday look to it with an overreaction I feel to late yesterday's Market Watch F_O_M_C rumor.

 Going out further to  10 min chart, I don't expect these to react as quickly, but if there were large scale underlying deterioration it may very well show up on one of the larger scale charts, thus I checked the longer scale charts as well to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

As for the TICK chart, it definitely reacted to the opening drop with a sub-1500 print, but only for a minute before it returned to less extreme readings and is currently around the -500 to -800 range which is a range we have seen the last day so it's not too extreme. The TICK Index is all NYSE stocks advancing less all NYSE stocks declining for that bar or Tick.

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