Tuesday, January 29, 2013

AMZN -VERY INTERESTING

I'm not making any prognostications about price in after-hours or what it means, but it is getting progressively more sloppy as the after hours session continues and what is very interesting is the fact that we might indeed get our entry and for the already established positions, like I said earlier, AMZN isn't infallible, MSFT wasn't, oil wasn't, gold wasn't and AAPL wasn't.

Before we get to the actual earnings, lets take a look at the AH chart...
AMZN had an after hours low of $249.50  which is down about 7% after the close today which was down -2.85%. The AH high was $290.49 and is currently at $284.51 - up +9.28%.

The first thing that popped out after I let trade settle a bit was a wedge that hit it's apex right at the AH high, volume was correct for the wedge as well, a bearish wedge in fact. I've seen a lot of these on daily charts and many are created, this one I would think is organic or the real deal, I can't see an algo being programmed to create that pattern in the chaos of after hours trade.

I have no idea where AMZN will land when AH trade is over and it's not that important to me, what is important is what happens tomorrow, I'd like to see a move to the $276+ area. Remember the chart posted before the close, this isn't the kind of chart that spells support.

So we'll see about that.

Now as to the actual earnings...

Missed on revenues
Missed on EPS
Guidance for Q1 was LOWER (This is usually the most important component of earnings)
Book Sales saw the lowest growth in 15 years
Worldwide net sales growth on a y/y basis was down to 23% from 34% a year ago
The Last 12 Months Net Income is officially negative in a huge plunge since 2010.


That's a stinker of an earnings report, but I've seen a lot of interesting ones and AH reactions, that's why I said earlier today that tomorrow will be much more important unless smart money could use this to their advantage, it seems to me they could with prices up like this.

Earnings aren't about what you did unless you consistently miss or beat and something changes, it's about perceptions moving forward.

I'm pretty excited about tomorrow and the weeks and months to come.

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