Tuesday, January 29, 2013

BIDU charts...

There are a few different perspectives and I wanted to update all of them as we haven't looked at BIDU in a while, but I also saw what looked like an opportunity now and wanted to get it out.

 Since BIDU has no local resistance (yellow arrow) like almost every other average or asset to target, it targeted larger resistance from earlier in the year confirmed several times (red vertical arrows), the move did what any head fake move should do, although I'm hesitant to throw that around loosely in BIDU's situation currently, and sent demand soaring. The part of BIDU's daily chart I don't like is the look at the early 2013 highs and the more recent highs of a "Tower top".

 BIDU was one of out Q1 2012 Core short positions and we shorted it at the orange arrow, you can see the negative leading divergences in each of the red boxes and a leading positive on this 60 min chart recently. There's no negative on this 60 min chart, that's why I'm careful as to how I classify BIDU.

 At the 15 min chart there are clear signs of accumulation at the reversal point which are sharper than the ones on the 60 min. as the shorter chart offers more detail. There's also some recent negative divergences which mean there is some distribution in BIDU, especially as it crossed resistance where demand would be, so smart money took advantage of that demand and was able to unload some shares. At the second high of 2012 (that looks like a tower top) there was more distribution, but distribution (the selling of shares) doesn't mean reversal, if you have 1 million shares and sold 200,000 at strong demand and higher prices, you engaged in distribution, but you still have a decently large position open long-this is why we have to look at a lot of different timeframes, a lot of market behaviors and other clues to determine when we are near a reversal rather than in the very early process of getting to one.

 Locally on a 5 min chart there was a little head fake move that was sold in to sending prices lower, allowing a restock of short term trading shares to move BIDU up again in which some more shares were unloaded.

If I were long BIDU since the trend started (up), I'd probably consider taking some profit, but stay long. If I have no position I don't want to enter BIDU here, the probabilities aren't stacked up in your favor. As a short, I don't see it as a high probability short either, but there does seem to be a trade available here,

 3 min chart just so you know where divergences start and end...

It's this 1 min chart and the flat area with a leading intraday positive divergence, this looks like a decent short term trade along the lines of AAPL, maybe shorter, but it's enough that I would take it, but only as a speculative position.

We'll see what happens here

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