Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Volatility: VIX, VXX, UVXY, XIV

I'm very close if not at the point in which I want to look at filling out the VXX equity long.

I'm even close to considering a VXX Call position although I'd rather give that about a day more, perhaps a very small speculative position that can be added to?

In any case, here's VIX and volatility related assets. First of all, all the stops were pulled, it looks like not only was the EUR/USD used this morning and again this afternoon, but the VIX also looks like it was used as it had been pretty consistently toward the first half of the month to prop up the market.

 The VIX vs the SPY intraday today, yesterday the VIX correlation that was used the first couple of weeks consistently in the market was totally broken, today it looks to have reappeared to some degree, but not anywhere near the area the correlation would suggest, I could read in to that as VIX strength/market weakness, but I won't at this point unless I can find a way to verify it with real data.

 Interestingly though as we move from what was a relative positive divergence, today we have a leading positive divergence which cannot be fully appreciated without comparing it to a past positive divergence as this leading move changes the entire chart's scale and makes the move look more normal than it is.

 Remember yesterday I was talking about the momentum change in important charts over the last 2 days, this leading 30 min is looking pretty darn strong and it's confirmed.

 The leveraged UVXY is also shooting to a new high in a leading positive in to lower prices, the divergence is perfectly placed vs price today.

 And UVXY's own 30 min leading positive divergence.


 XIV kis the inverse of VIX, VXX and UVXY, therefore for confirmation of the above charts, XIV should throw off the exact opposite signal or thereabouts. The 1 min


 I didn't want to draw on this 15 min chart because it's so obvious where the divergence is.

And out to a 60 min we have a new leading negative low that goes back beyond October.

I'll let you know if any positions are changed, opened or closed.

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