I try to pay attention to futures in pre-market as close to the open as possible because there's often a shift that occurs in the last hour or so leading up to the open, there's always a shift right on the open as if the market was stung and ran in either the other direction or the same, but double time.
Yesterday I saw a lot of things that didn't look good for the market, we can just sum it all up though with the flight to safety flows to Treasuries/TLT.
You saw the pre-market and overnight futures, they got worked pretty hard...
However, there was also the post yesterday that showed a few short term positive divergences in the short treasury ETF, TBT. This told me yesterday, "Not so fast, you have some time".
Despite this morning's futures, nearly right on cue as the market opened, the EUR/USD did this...
It would be enough just to see the spike in the FX pair right at 9:30 to pump the market just as yesterday's TBT suggested (although we had no way to know overnight futures would be down, they certainly showed damage), that we still have some time which is not what futures looked like 5 minutes before the open, but underlying trade was right as the move in the FX pair did what it was supposed to, gave us some more time.
If you think this is some random move or a small manipulative move, think again, although we are still early in the week, the EUR/USD pair went from making a new low for the week about 3.5 hours ago to a new high just after 9:30.
The end result...
The SPY which gapped down is now nearly unchanged.
I'm sure we'll see more volatility as this is just the start, but this should tell you something about how far in advance (even a day) Wall Street plans and how they'll use whatever lever they need to stay on track with that plan.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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