We don't get to see this much in the market anymore, but I suspect that's exactly what has happened in TLT and VXX. Keep in mind these charts were captured before the AAPL closure so they probably look quite a bit better now.
You may recall, as the SPX moved higher and the 3:30 ramp was attempted Wednesday, VXX would not move lower, not even in it normal correlation suggesting traders were buying VIX futures for protection (sentiment=fear), then yesterday TLT did the same exact thing, stayed put when even by correlation alone it should have fell lower not to mention TLT being 1 of 3 assets used to manipulate the market higher, again suggesting real demand and a flight to the safety of bonds, holding both in place and 3C confirmed with positive divergences.
The SP-500 (red) vs TLT (green), we knew when TLT gapped up it would likely fill the gap, remember this is a flight to safety trade., the two assets normally move opposite each other on normal correlation, when manipulated TLT will move even lower than the normal correlation, but just like the VXX the day before, yesterday TLT would not move lower in to higher SPX prices. Today it has gapped up on demand that started overnight during the futures negative divergences.
While TLT was not moving lower, a 3C positive divergence was building, both events suggested there was real organic demand for a flight to safety trade.
On a longer term chart, the Great Rotation out of bonds as the pundits claimed was short lived, again the gap that we thought would be filled was and now higher today.
The Trend Channel stopped out the Bond Rotation and is in good shape on the uptrend, not even close to stopping out.
TLT's move this morning was confirmed as well
And the 3C chart, note very little distribution sending TLT lower, mostly correlation, not real selling, then the positive divergence as TLT refused to move lower as it should even when not being manipulated and SPY arbitrage showed us they did try to manipulate the 3 assets used (HYG, TLT and VXX).
TLT's 15 min chart, there was no distribution on this timeframe, in other words, people owning TLT were not selling to make this move lower, not in any serious size, mostly arbitrage correlation moved it lower. Now a leading positive divergence in the 15 min chart, that's a strong signal considering the former move down and lack of any signal on this timeframe-the longer the timeframe, the heavier the underlying trade, so if no negative showed up here, it was not strong enough distribution to show up here, but the positive is showing up and price has moved, this looks like real fear and real organic demand-the market actually working.
VXX started this Wednesday with a refusal to move lower as the SPX was up much higher and continues yesterday.
Now VXX as of earlier this morning, VIX futures are being bought for protection, fear is rising.
1 min chart confirms the move today
And the 15 min chart shows a strong positive divergence.
This is one of the few times I have seen real organic supply/demand driven by fear and greed over the last 4 years.
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