Looks Like We'll Get that Shot @ XLF Puts

I wanted upside momentum, especially when opening a put position, the more the better and I wasn't sure if we'd get it in XLF (I like FAZ long too, but as an equity, not an option trade).

Take a look... 3 simple charts

 2 min intraday chart, now that it is moving and leading, it and the 1 min can tell me when momentum is about to fade, that's when I want to enter the Put, as high as possible and right before momentum fades.

 The 5 min chart at the area suspected as a head fake area and the 5 min chart alone helps confirm that, I'm watching the green arrow area also for momentum intraday.

Longer Term, this is a typical cycle, or the 4 stages, 1) Base/Accumulation, 2) Mark Up/Price breakout and demand, 3) distribution and eventually top and stage 4) Decline, that's the lifecycle of assets, over and over and in many different timeframes.

In white we have large accumulation, they own the shares, they mark up price and demand comes in, retail gets excited especially with "New High" headlines and jumps in, then distribution at the red arrow, since the positions are so large they can't be sold in a day like we can without crashing the market, they sell a little at a time in to rising prices, the leading negative divergence usually suggests the shares are all gone and short selling is in effect, especially when the leading negative is below the accumulation area (white) and one of the last things we see 80% of the time before a reversal, a head fake move. Read my articles, "Understanding the head-fake move" linked at the top right of the member's site to understand why the head fake is so important and profitable before a reversal.

I like what I see, if you are interested in SKF long or FAZ (2x and 3x leveraged bear Financial ETFs), you might look at the signals for the options, the equity should be just as good if not a better entry at that point, but I'm glad we got some yesterday at better prices.