AAPL P/L and Follow Up

Lets first remember that I really liked the AAPL longer term charts, in fact I was bothered that they looked so good, yet I had to maintain discipline as the short term charts were not confirming. The probabilities were AAPL moves higher at that time, but that's not the same as a "High probability" trade so I waited and then when I saw weakness that looked like it could be exploited in the near term, I went for the puts, giving enough time just in case the near term charts deteriorated the longer term charts like I showed you this morning as the 10 min chart infected the previously beautiful 15 min chart.

However, this morning, knowing AAPL is one of the most watched stocks out there and that traders would have seen the triangle from yesterday as a bullish consolidation/continuation pattern, the head fake move to run the stops was set up perfectly, using technical analysis against traders. I didn't sign up for a head fake move and as of now, I don't have any great reason to believe this is more than that as the short term charts are not confirming weakness.

So here's a look, this may also be a good lesson in a head fake move or maybe something else, but the momentum was there and if I asked myself, "Would you buy AAPL puts right now under these circumstances?", my answer would have been "NO", so why hold them?

This doesn't mean AAPL is a great long position either, the charts are not consistent in saying that so it's not high probability and since closing the AAPL Puts, AAPL hasn't moved to a lower low ... at least not yet.

At this fill, the short term put gained 12%, not a huge amount, but enough for me considering the uncertainty.

 Here's the triangle and then the lateral support I mentioned a few posts ago, "If AAPL breaks below $431.20, I'll be looking to sell if there's not big improvement". AAPL did break that area of support.

 As compared to the earlier break of the triangle to the left, volume/stops hit were a lot heavier on this move, at the time the yellow candle with a hammer and increased volume looked like a possible capitulation move.

 1 min chart moving down, but still not confirming below the yellow trendline

3 min chart in line.

If you are still holding, best to you!