Some of you have noted VXX/UVXY are not moving as much as they should, here's most likely tour reason why, although I'll double check. I'll also post futures next.
The 3 levers to move the market in the SPY Arbitrage model from Capital Context (and these are used by institutional investors, not retail) shows the 3 assets used to make the model and manipulate the market higher (TLT down, VXX down, HYG up) are in some combination or all are being used, this may be to effect the optimum Op-Ex pin level.
PLEASE DO NOT DISCOUNT THE FUTURES CHARTS IN NUMEROUS TIMEFRAMES I POSTED THIS MORNING (linked ) I have never seen so many timeframes across so many futures so negative. Remember a 1 min timeframe shows smaller bits of accumulation and distribution, but a 15 min shows large chunks, a 60 min even larger, we were negative through the daily chart (that's as far as I can go).
That is why CONTEXT for SPX futures (ES) looks like this..
There is now a negative 28 point differential between the model and ES, that means ES is likely 28 points overpriced vs the correlated assets that move with it.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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