Market Update & Example trade Set-Up: GOOG

It looks like this move is ready to go and has started, I believe it will go and it looks in several ways like it will be more than just intraday, however there are a few indications that may just be passing, but they may develop in to something more which would suggest this move would end before it really got started, we're not there yet.

I've been looking at candidates, I have quite a few, one of the better ones is GOOG short (using an upside move to get in to position).

I am not very interested in trying to trade the upside move that has been indicated for a couple of hours just because the probabilities are for a pretty short move, it actually looks much better as a set up move to trade with probabilities.

Lets start from the top.

 This is the intraday 1 min NQ (NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures) as the NASDAQ/QQQ seems to look the best. It has the best looking positive divergence of the Index futures, but note the little area in yellow, that almost looks like there's some early selling even in to the slightest strength, of course it could be a place holder to keep the move from prematurely launching as well, it's way too early to take that too serious, but definitely needs to be watched.

 This is that same area in the QQQ 1 min chart, there's a good divergence on intraday charts in the Q's as you can see one above, but again that area needs to be watched.

This is the NYSE intraday TICK, the channels have switched, but the current channel looks a bit thin, this goes back to the areas that need to be watched, I doubt they are anything, but you know where new divergences start.

As far as the expected move, GOOG is one of several assets I'm going through now that would make a nice position, GOOG already has rot or longer term negatives built in, if GOOG can drift with the market and the short term timeframes go negative or rather more negative in to any upside, then GOOG sets up as a high probability/Low risk short.

 I don't know if GOOG can make either one of these, if there was a decent market move I'd say the $910.85 area would be probable, that's where a head fake move can set up and the short term 3C charts going negative in to an area like that on some volume would be the confirmation I'd be looking for.

 GOOG's 30 min (longer term) chart already has rot or distribution set in so it's a good target.

 The 1 min hasn't responded today with the Q's so any upside would be drafting the market, which is indicative of short term weakness as well.

The 3 min chart

The 5 min chart is now at the deepest leading negative divergence and the price move is starting to get a little vertical or parabolic.
 

And the 15 min chart is at it's strongest leading negative divergence so every timeframe plays right in to that 30 min.

All we need is a move to the upside, hopefully an obvious resistance area broken on some volume and then 3C confirmation of a head fake move or selling/shorting by smart money in to the supply (provided by retail buying a breakout above resistance).

Back to stalking trades, this is where I prefer to be.

First we have to see if this market move will get going and I think it will, if not, then the sellers are stronger than expected, if they are willing to sell in to any bit of price strength, it's kind of like the AAPL decline situation.

Retail is bullish so the ground is prepped and ready to go, we just need a spark.