IWM vs. the Q's

Right now there's a big difference between the IWM and the QQQ. When I have a situation like this I try to look at each one and imagine all of the averages looked like each one and I'd have to say, the IWM looks far more dangerous right now.

As I said last night,

"Oddly the CONTEXT model for ES is very bullish...That's about a 22 point positive differential, but again very few markets that are part of the modeling of CONTEXT are open, and CONTEXT does adjust and change the weighting of their model-usually in the morning as we have seen numerous times before."

As suspected, CONTEXT for ES was adjusted from a 22 point positive to about 7.5 points a few hours after I posted the comments above. Right now CONTEXT is negative 4-5 points.

I posted this more for informational purposes, CONTEXT can be extremely accurate, but like all Technical analysis, it's more art than science.

The dichotomy of the moment...

 IWM 3 min (1 or 2 min look as bad or worse) in a very sharp, sudden leading negative divergence that has migration through timeframes and looks legitimate.

 I checked the NYSE TICK, it poked above +1000 a couple of times this morning, that's normal for early price action, however now  it is rarely moving above +500 which is very low and we had 1 move on the downside at -1400, now that is not usual, that is very extreme for price action, but right in line with the IWM's 3C charts.

And the Q's, they moved from the inline 3C signal across all of the averages  (for the most part) on Friday which is "trend confirmation", so as I said last night, 3C has a remarkable way (actually it's the market that has a remarkable way) of knowing where they will be the next trading day, even over a weekend, this is the short term control Wall St. exerts over the market.

From the inline status up, we had an in line status down to fill the gap (this is not negative, it's just trend confirmation) and now a more positive signal, mostly in the Q's, but a little in the SPY. The IWM is as ugly as can be.

Some other indications (above and beyond the charts from last night as well as the large futures update this morning-all very much in line with the probability of a strong move down)...

 The HYG price chart as shown last night is dislocated from the SPX, that however is a rather new development, approx. 2 days since it broke ranks so it's not surprising this 5 min HYG chart is for the most part, in line with price action.

However as we know, new divergences and new moves occurring in the market start on the fastest timeframes and then build credibility as they migrate through longer timeframes. HYG 1 min leading negative today

 HYG 2 min leading negative today, so far the 3 min is inline, but I doubt for long.

 VXX 2 min is leading positive, confirming HYG's short term charts as well as the IWM's.

The VXX 2 min trend has more information and more meaningful information in the trend.

VXX 3 min is seeing migration as the IWM and HYG are seeing the same migration.

 VXX 3 min trend, again has more important "bigger picture" information.

TLT, even with a gap up is starting to see leading positive divergences, not a lot yet, but an interesting start.

I believe the market in general will see some upside intraday relief as most averages are poised for now, but I believe we'll see severe deterioration in assets such as credit, the averages, short term futures, positive in VIX futures as well as TLT.

Basically the humans are back, the next leg is being prepared or rather receiving final preparations.

This means there's a good chance for some decent set ups, I'll be looking to see where the best ones are.