As I have maintained over the last several months, the Chinese are more than a little upset at their neighbor's Godzilla-like QE policy, I mean Japan where PM, Abe Shinzo and the Bank of Japan have engaged in aggressive economic interference or what is known as accommodative policy and created and unleashed what is the most aggressive form of Quantitative Easing we have seen in an effort to halt 2 decades of deflation. The plan put forward by Abe nominated BOJ members and Chairman is nothing short of a DOUBLING of the Japanese monetary base within 2 years!
I wrote several articles, 2 of which are linked on the member's site called, "Currency Crisis" which outlines Japan's undertaking and my belief that the Japanese went too big and have already seen signs that they have lost control of the QE beast they created.
For China's part all of this newly created "Hot Money" is looking for a home that generates income rather than watching it lose purchasing power in a saving's account. This is largely the mechanism used by the US F_E_D to boost the market which started in late 2008, was expanded in 2009 at the time the market bottomed and maintained pretty steadily ever since, sending the market in to "Bubble" territory with no real support or base to justify these valuations.
China, which is already fighting inflation as evidenced by their repo, liquidity draining actions in recent months due to a bubble in their property market which has caused them to initiate curbs such as "A family may only own 1 home", in effect trying to dissuade the purchasing of property for any kind of investment. Obviously their nearby neighbor, Japan, has an economic policy that is completely at odds with what China is trying to combat and achieve.
It has been my belief that this economic disagreement has manifested in one of the only ways China has right now to try to influence Japanese economic policy and that is straight out aggression that is over economic policy in reality, but disguised behind a very thin facade of conflict over issues like a few rocky islands in the middle of the ocean known by Japan as the Senkaku Islands. THE DISPUTE THERE AND THE ESCALATION OF THE DISPUTE BY CHINA IS AN ODD, BUT EFFECTIVE BAROMETER OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC "PAIN METER" and Japanese PM has pretty much called China out on the issue in this link from The Japanese Times.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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