Monday, July 8, 2013

SPY Arbitrage

To me it looks like the QQQ will see the biggest intraday move, if I'm day trading, I'm going for QQQ weekly calls or something along those lines, but you really have to be on top of that ball.

Even the SPY Arbitrage model is suggesting a pretty decent move in the SPY intraday.

 This is about 15 minutes delayed, but the last reading showed the SPY arbitrage model from Capital Context at a  +$.93 differential, that's a pretty big move considering. The 3 assets that the SPYArbitrage model is constructed of, are all below.

 First the SPY intraday chart, it's not that strong, it is showing improvement and I believe it is for a move, but it's not leading strong like the IWM. It did see early confirmation as Friday's close suggested it would on a gap up, then a leading negative intraday signal that brought it down to intraday support, now the "more positive" signal. This is pretty much market-wide on the 1 min charts so it should happen, what is important unless you are day trading the move, is what happens to underlying trade in different assets, those will be today's opportunities.

 TLT, despite the positive divergence which doesn't fit with a market move to the upside, meaning TLT may even be a good long at some point today, is rather flat so it's not moving the arbitrage model much.

Note the head fake move Friday, THE LAST THING TO HAPPEN BEFORE AN UPSIDE REVERSAL ON THE TIMEFRAME.

DESPITE THE POSITIVE IN VXX, THE SLIP BELOW SUPPORT TAGGED STOPS AND THIS WILL MOVE THE SPY ARB MODEL UP.

Most of all...
Add the HYG move, remember Context can't see 3C or underlying trade, their models are based solely on price.

HYG looks like it may be a good short trade at some point today as well.

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