Friday, February 25, 2011

EDZ Trade Alert (long)

EDZ has been a long time favorite as the emerging market trade I believe to be overdone-a bunch of sheep all heading to the slaughterhouse. It's a prime example of how bullish descending wedges have been behaving lately after their breakout of the wedge as they create a lateral base (lateral action is often where we see accumulation and distribution).

Here's the charts....

 EDZ's bullish descending wedge and subsequent base building, note MACD's positive profile and good volume in the lateral base.

 3c daily tracked the trend well as it fell, but then went to a huge daily leading positive divergence throughout the base. I like this chart a LOT!

And here's the Trend Channel setting for EDZ that has tracked the downtrend and should do well with the uptrend (note that only a close below the lower trend line is a stop out, not intraday action below it). Around the white box is where I prefer a stop to account for any market volatility.

There are many reasons I like Emerging Markets short. I said way back that they would fight the Fed's main export to their economies, inflation and they have fought back against the hot money flows. Many of what we may consider emerging markets are also going through social upheavals which will also close down long trades in those markets. In my opinion, the trade looks better and better.

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