Friday, February 25, 2011

SLV / Silver Update

The question remains, has Blythe Masters been vanquished. I just can't imagine a JPM short squeeze the size of what it would be not creating price action that shows it. A short squeeze has virtually no pullbacks and looks like a computer trade buy program. As I wrote last night, the fall in silver and oil was on concerns over margin hikes as ICE hiked margins on Brent and WTI crude, this morning we see a recovery as the margin hikes have not materialized.

Here's the SLV charts...
 First here's yesterdays plunge which I explained above, today's action looks like a relief pop that is just discounting the fact that the hikes in margin didn't materialize, there's no new highs, no hint of a short squeeze.

 The hourly chart isn't telling us much, except that a short squeeze is likely not there as it would be powerful enough to move the 60 minute chart into a positive leading divergence.


The 30 minute chart suggests almost the opposite as if a bear raid (mini) has taken place to stem the upward momentum in silver.

 The 15 minute chart gave us warning of the pullback at the red arrow (negative divergence/distribution), and late yesterday after the margin hike didn't come into play we saw some late accumulation leading to this morning's pop.

 The 5 min chart again gave us warning of the pullback in SLV and has not strongly confirmed or even confirmed this morning's action. Now it is still early for the 1 min chart to bleed to the 5 min, but if there were exceptional accumulation, it could have made it there by now.

The 1 min chart in white shows the positive divergence at the lows late yesterday and the green arrow is simple confirmation, it's not leading, thus we don't see anything exceptional about the 5 min chart.

I'm not saying that this won't end badly for JPM, I'm just saying this has happened 3x before and JPM always beat out the viral silver bug campaign. I don't see evidence to suggest that JPM is covering their short right now. Furthermore, I don't see the silver bugs as having an exceptionally strong position either. We'll have to wait and se how it plays out, but there's a trade in it either way, we just need to be patient and wait for the setup. Let the silver bugs take the risk right now, the edge just isn't there yet.

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