Keep your eye on the forrest not just the trees. I've suggested recently that you take the opportunities of good setups at low risk to get your toes wet in some shorts, usually I'd wait for strong confirmation, but the destruction of the market structure could make the first serious break, a very profitable one. Be sure to read the risk management link at the top right of the site. No one psoition that is stopped out should represent any more then 2% risk on your portfolio and that's at the most!
Here's the bigger picture.
The long term QE trendline has been tested and broken once, we should expect volatility in the area, but a quick move down can not be ruled out as this market has been showing weakness for quite some time, this is not new.
The daily 3C chart on the S&P-500 has shown the weakness in the market as have all of my breadth posts. This is not a healthy market seeing confirmation, but rather seeing distribution despite the Fed's/NY Fed's operations and manipulation.
MACD (I use a long version) has clearly identified the falling apart of the trend momentum and recent volume has been very serious in the context of this trend.
Trading bounces is fine, but also know when to use those bounces to establish low risk short positions and don't take your eye off the big picture.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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