Friday, February 25, 2011

Market Update

OK, in the last update I mentioned a likely scenario or at least a scenario is a new intraday high. Lets look at the charts...

 1 min chart making an intraday new high in the box


 The 1 min 3C has not confirmed any of the price strength, although yesterday the 5 min charts did suggest we'd see a higher market today (see yesterday afternoons market update just before 4 p.m.).


The 5 min chart above is what suggested to me that we would see higher prices today, the question remains "How long?" As a reminder, the market almost always goes further then you anticipate like a pendulum swinging too far one way and then too far the next. Right now the 5 min chart remains in confirmation as you see at the green arrow, the white arrow was the positive divergence suggesting a move higher today. Until we see a negative divergence here, I'll assume that the market will correct a bit higher or start to go lateral with a decent 1% gain. Most of the movement will not be seen until later this afternoon, so I don't expect too much now.

On another note, tonight I'm going to talk a little about modified risk management in an environment in which everything is highly correlated which is not good for risk management and some adjustments should be made. We'll talk about that after market.

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