Monday, April 9, 2012

AMZN/FAZ


FAZ was a decent 1 day gain and this is about the 4th AMZN trade that has made money, although not as much this time.

I see a short positive divergence in AMZN and a negative divergence on FAz, both I expect to be short lived, however why not take the gains and re-position?  I'd prefer to reposition today if the signals come through, but I'll wait on those.

 AMZN 2 min 3C trend, note the positive divergence today that is leading positive, this looks like a bounce in AMZN.

The premise of the AMZN trade was a head fake breakout above resistance, in yellow we saw a nice candlestick reversal confirmation and AMZN broke back below the head fake level, however as we almost always see, when important support is broken, there's a volatility shakeout. If I'm a longer term trader I ride it out, but since the signals are pretty clear, it's been easy to trade around them and this makes about the 4th profitable AMZN trade since this head fake breakout started.

 AMZN's longer term 60 min trend, leading negative. This is why if I'm a longer term trader I wouldn't mind holding AMZN, but again, with the clarity of the signals, important support having been broken, I'd rather take the profit and reposition for the next short on a volatility shakeout.

 FAZ 2 min 3C trend with several positive divergences, although there was early confirmation, the leading negative intraday suggests a gap fill is likely, again, with good signals, why not take the $ and reposition.

FAZ 15 min longer term trend looks very good with a strong leading positive divergence, in yellow is the gap area, we know how often gaps are filled. Still, if the opportunity presents itself, I'd prefer to re-enter or re-position before the close, that's not something I control though, we'll hve to let the market tell us where to re-position.

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